Abstract

The paper presents a probabilistic method of computational estimation of steam turbine life. The need for the use of probabilistic analysis results from the inherent uncertainty in estimating lifetime expenditure due to creep and thermal fatigue. As a starting point for analysis, a deterministic method of lifetime consumption calculation of steam turbines critical components was presented, and maim sources of uncertainty present in this approach were discussed. Them, a mathematical model proposed for probabilistic caclculations was described in detail. As an example of probabilistic  propability of a MW steam trubine HP stop valve resulting form the scatter of material data was given. Numerical siimulations were performed using a computer code developed by ALSTOM Power.